Tracking Covid-19 cases in the US

Since January, health authorities have identified more than 15 million Covid-19 cases throughout the United States.

California has reported the most cases (1,468,364) so far and 20,520 deaths. When adjusted for population, that translates to roughly 3,716 known cases and 52 deaths for every 100,000 residents.

Experts say these numbers don’t give the whole picture because many cases — including mild or asymptomatic infections — have not been diagnosed.

Every state is following a different coronavirus trajectory. New York and Washington were hit hard during the pandemic’s early days, for example. But cases and deaths have risen more slowly in other states, some of which haven’t yet hit their “peaks,” according to a model developed by researchers from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease specialist, says that those differences make it impossible to use a one-size-fits-all approach during the pandemic.

“We have to realize that we’re a large country that has outbreaks in different regions, different states, different cities, that have different dynamics, and different phases in which they are in,” Fauci said in late April.

In an effort to mitigate the virus’ spread, state and local authorities throughout the country have moved to limit large gatherings, close non-essential businesses and ordered residents to stay in their homes, triggering a near-total national shutdown.

In many areas, the conversation has shifted to when these communities can reopen. In mid-April, the White House unveiled a three-phase plan, including guidance that states should meet certain “gating criteria” before taking steps to reopen. One of those benchmarks is for states to have a “downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period,” and it’s clear many states aren’t there yet.

The White House criteria are vague, however. They don’t specify whether a downward trajectory in cases means 14 days of consistent declines, with any uptick in cases resetting the clock, or whether states just need to see a broader trend toward fewer infections.

There are also delays in reporting cases, meaning that infections reported today could have been identified days ago. It remains unclear whether states should focus on when a person tested positive or instead focus on when a case was publicly reported. The White House has not responded to CNN’s requests for clarification.

A downward trend in cases is also just one of many gating criteria issued by the White House. States must also have “robust” testing programs in place for at-risk health care workers, for example, and all hospitals must be able to care for patients without resorting to crisis measures.

States also need to see a downward trend in symptoms related to coronavirus, not just a decline in laboratory-confirmed infections. These cases, called “covid-like syndromic cases,” aren’t consistently reported by individual states, making it difficult to assess whether any given state is ready to open based on the White House guidelines.