The influential coronavirus model at the University of Washington has projected 502,000 Americans will have died from Covid-19 by April 1, down from its prediction of 539,000 deaths last week.
The model from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation predicts a new coronavirus vaccine can save 25,000 or more lives. And if 95% of Americans wore masks, the death count would drop by 56,000 by April 1 compared to the “most likely” scenario.
On the other hand, if states ease coronavirus mandates, the model projects 598,000 cumulative deaths by April 1.
“Moreover, the impact of vaccinations is greater as well because of the detailed information in the Pfizer FDA filing, showing approximately 50% protection after the first dose, and data on a larger number of doses available sooner in the US,” IHME said.
The model projects 25,200 lives will be saved by the vaccine rollout and if the distribution occurs rapidly, 44,500 lives could be saved compared to a no-vaccine scenario.
The Covid-19 epidemic in the Midwest is leveling off but is increasing on the West Coast and in the Northeast, IHME said.